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How ChatGPT can turn anyone into a ransomware and malware threat actor  

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How ChatGPT can turn anyone into a ransomware and malware threat actor  

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Ever since OpenAI launched ChatGPT at the end of November, commentators on all sides have been concerned about the impact AI-driven content-creation will have, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity. In fact, many researchers are concerned that generative AI solutions will democratize cybercrime. 

With ChatGPT, any user can enter a query and generate malicious code and convincing phishing emails without any technical expertise or coding knowledge.

While security teams can also leverage ChatGPT for defensive purposes such as testing code, by lowering the barrier for entry for cyberattacks, the solution has complicated the threat landscape significantly. 

The democratization of cybercrime 

From a cybersecurity perspective, the central challenge created by OpenAI’s creation is that anyone, regardless of technical expertise can create code to generate malware and ransomware on-demand.

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“Just as it [ChatGPT] can be used for good to assist developers in writing code for good, it can (and already has) been used for malicious purposes,” said Director, Endpoint Security Specialist at Tanium, Matt Psencik.

“A couple examples I’ve already seen are asking the bot to create convincing phishing emails or assist in reverse engineering code to find zero-day exploits that could be used maliciously instead of reporting them to a vendor,” Psencik said. 

Although, Psencik notes that ChatGPT does have inbuilt guardrails designed to prevent the solution from being used for criminal activity. 

For instance, it will decline to create shell code or provide specific instructions on how to create shellcode or establish a reverse shell and flag malicious keywords like phishing to block the requests. 

The problem with these protections is that they’re reliant on the AI recognizing that the user is attempting to write malicious code (which users can obfuscate by rephrasing queries), while there’s no immediate consequences for violating OpenAI’s content policy. 

How to use ChatGPT to create ransomware and phishing emails 

While ChatGPT hasn’t been out long, security researchers have already started to test its capacity to generate malicious code. For instance, Security researcher and co-founder of Picus Security, Dr Suleyman Ozarslan recently used ChatGPT not only to create a phishing campaign, but to create ransomware for MacOS.  

“We started with a simple exercise to see if ChatGPT would create a believable phishing campaign and it did. I entered a prompt to write a World Cup themed email to be used for a phishing simulation and it created one within seconds, in perfect English,” Ozarslan said. 

In this example, Ozarslan “convinced” the AI to generate a phishing email by saying he was a security researcher from an attack simulation company looking to develop a phishing attack simulation tool. 

While ChatGPT recognized that “phishing attacks can be used for malicious purposes and can cause harm to individuals and organizations,” it still generated the email anyway. 

After completing this exercise, Ozarslan then asked ChatGPT to write code for Swift, which could find Microsoft Office files on a MacBook and send them via HTTPS to a web server, before encrypting the Office files on the MacBook. The solution responded by generating sample code with no warning or prompt. 

Ozarslan’s research exercise illustrates that cybercriminals can easily work around the OpenAI’s protections, either by positioning themselves as researchers or obfuscating their malicious intentions. 

The uptick in cybercrime unbalances the scales 

While ChatGPT does offer positive benefits for security teams, by lowering the barrier to entry for cybercriminals it has the potential to accelerate complexity in the threat landscape more than it has to reduce it. 

For example, cybercriminals can use AI to increase the volume of phishing threats in the wild, which are not only overwhelming security teams already, but only need to be successful once to cause a data breach that costs millions in damages. 

“When it comes to cybersecurity, ChatGPT has a lot more to offer attackers than their targets,” said CVP of Research & Development at email security provider, IRONSCALES, Lomy Ovadia. 

“This is especially true for Business Email Compromise (BEC) attacks that rely on using deceptive content to impersonate colleagues, a company VIP, a vendor, or even a customer,” Ovadia said. 

Ovadia argues that CISOs and security leaders will be outmatched if they rely on policy-based security tools to detect phishing attacks with AI/GPT-3 generated content, as these AI models use advanced natural language processing (NLP) to generate scam emails that are nearly impossible to distinguish from genuine examples.

For example, earlier this year, security researcher’s from Singapore’s Government Technology Agency, created 200 phishing emails and compared the clickthrough rate against those created by deep learning model GPT-3, and found that more users clicked on the AI-generated phishing emails than the ones produced by human users. 

So what’s the good news? 

While generative AI does introduce new threats to security teams, it does also offer some positive use cases. For instance, analysts can use the tool to review open-source code for vulnerabilities before deployment. 

“Today we are seeing ethical hackers use existing AI to help with writing vulnerability reports, generating code samples, and identifying trends in large data sets. This is all to say that the best application for the AI of today is to help humans do more human things,” said Solutions Architect at HackerOne, Dane Sherrets. 

However, security teams that attempt to leverage generative AI solutions like ChatGPT still need to ensure adequate human supervision to avoid potential hiccups. 

“The advancements ChatGPT represents are exciting, but technology hasn’t yet developed to run entirely autonomously. For AI to function, it requires human supervision, some manual configuration and cannot always be relied upon to be run and trained upon the absolute latest data and intelligence,” Sherrets said. 

It’s for this reason that Forrester recommends organizations implementing generative AI should deploy workflows and governance to manage AI-generated content and software to ensure it’s accurate, and reduce the likelihood of releasing solutions with security or performance issues. 

Inevitably, the true risk of generative aI and ChatGPT will be determined by whether security teams or threat actors leverage automation more effectively in the defensive vs offensive AI war. 

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AI art apps are cluttering the App Store’s Top Charts following Lensa AI’s success • TechCrunch

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AI art apps are cluttering the App Store’s Top Charts following Lensa AI’s success • TechCrunch

Lensa’s AI popularity has had a notable impact on the App Store’s Top Charts. The popular photo and video editing app recently went viral over its new “magic avatars” feature, powered by the open source Stable Diffusion model, allowing users to turn their selfies into styled portraits of themselves as sci-fi, anime, or fantasy characters, among other artistic renderings. Consumer demand for the app, and for AI edits more broadly, has now pushed numerous other “AI” apps into the U.S. App Store’s Top Charts. As of Monday, the top three spots on the U.S. App Store are now all held by AI photo editors, and even more AI art apps are newly ranking in the Top 100.

The No. 1 spot on the U.S. App Store, however, continues to be held by Lensa AI, which has seen 12.6 million global installs in the first 11 days of December, up 600% from the 1.8 million installs it saw during a similar time frame in November (Nov. 20 through Nov. 30), according to new data from app store intelligence firm Sensor Tower. The U.S. accounted for 3.6 million of those new December installs, estimates indicate.

In fact, 8 out of the top 100 apps by downloads on the U.S. App Store were AI art apps during the time Dec. 1 through Dec. 11 time frame, the firm’s analysis found.

Following Lensa AI, the generic-sounding app AI Art: AI Image Generator had keyword-stuffed its app’s name to rank in second place, promising AI avatars and AI art from text. Dawn – AI Avatars is in the No. 3 position, offering AI avatars that can be changed with a text prompt. (As of the time of writing on Dec. 12, the two apps appear to now have swapped places.)

AI Art has seen around 1.7 million global installs during Dec. 1-11, up 229% from the 71,000 it saw during Nov. 20-30. Meanwhile, Dawn also saw around 1.7 million installs, Sensor Tower said, up from the 28,000 it saw in the late November time frame.

These are shortly followed by Wonder – AI Art Generator at No. 10, which also offers AI avatars and AI art from text prompts.

Although Wonder ranks lower in the U.S., it has seen around 4 million global installs so far in December, up from the prior period of Nov. 20-30, when it saw 469,000 installs.

Not too much farther down the Top Charts, you’ll also find Prequel: Aesthetic AI Editor at slot No. 14. The app has seen 907,000 global installs this month so far, up from the 319,000 seen November 20 through 30.

The Top 50 also includes the newer app Voi – AI Avatar App by Wonder at No. 39. This happens to be from the same developer behind the No. 10 app Wonder but has an awful 1.6-star rating over its price subscription model and broken features, according to angry customer reviews. Launched only on Dec. 7, Voi has already gained 785,000 installs, of which 241,000 were U.S.-based. Clearly benefitting from the trend, the app’s developer actually now has three apps that reference “AI” in their titles, including the lesser-ranked Pixelup – AI Photo Enhancer.

Another AI app, Meitu – Photo Editor & AI Art has moved into No. 47 on the U.S. App Store after gaining 6.4 million installs in December so far, up from the 1.1 million seen during Nov. 20-30.

In addition to highly ranking overall among iPhone apps, the U.S. App Store’s Graphics & Design category is also now filled with AI art apps within its own Top Charts.

Here, Dawn is the No. 1 Top Free app, followed by AI Art and Wonder to round out the top 3. Profile AI: AI Avatar Creator, Inspire – AI Art Generator, and Dream by Wombo – AI Art Tool are ranked 8, 9, and 10, respectively. Lesser known apps pop up as you scroll down the category’s Top 50 as well, filing slots No. 14, 19, 21, 25, 27, 31, 36, 44, and 47 — too many to list. All use the keyword “AI” in their app’s name along and reference activities like “AI art” or “AI avatars.”

And of course, the U.S. Photo & Video category’s Top Charts have several AI apps as well, including No. 1 Lensa, No. 5 Prequel, No. 7 Voi, No. 8 Meitu, and No. 26 FacePlay.

AI app demand is not limited to the App Store, however. Many of the same apps are trending on Google Play, too. When both app stores’ rankings are combined, Lensa AI remains No. 1, AI Art is No. 2, Wonder is No. 8, Meitu is No. 10, Prequel is No. 68, Dawn is No. 72, Dream is No. 77 and FacePlay is No. 90.

Dream gained 782,000 new global installs in December so far, while FacePlay gained 2.8 million, Sensor Tower found.

While it’s common for app makers to congregate around a trend by updating their app’s name and description, or by bidding on keywords in Apple’s App Store Search ads, it’s remarkable just how many “AI” apps have now made it to the Top Charts in the wake of Lensa’s success. This signals something more than a flash-in-the-pan trend, as the general conversation these days is around how much AI has been improving — in other areas, people are marveling at the leap of the AI tech ChatGPT.

That said, we should note that just because an app is marketing itself as AI-powered, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s using the same Stable Diffusion model Lensa is. Not that consumers seem to care– they seem happy to try almost any app labeling itself AI for the time being, as long as it delivers interesting and creative results.

Of course, there are concerns over this specific AI use case. Already, Stable Diffusion has become controversial for the way its model was trained by using images from artists without their consent. Lensa was also able to be tricked into making NSFW images, TechCrunch found. And today, MIT Technology Review reported that Lensa created topless images and skimpy and sexualized avatars when tried by one female reporter, who happened to be of Asian heritage — suggesting the AI had been influenced by an overabundance of anime and video characters.

It’s clear the tech has a long way to go to be ethical and responsible. But those concerns, for the time being, aren’t dampening consumer interest in this growing category.

HR platform Sequoia says hackers accessed customer SSNs and COVID-19 data • TechCrunch

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HR platform Sequoia says hackers accessed customer SSNs and COVID-19 data • TechCrunch

Benefits and payroll management company Sequoia says hackers accessed sensitive customer information, including their Social Security numbers and COVID-19 test results.

According to Wired, which first broke the news of Sequoia’s breach last week, the incident impacted customers of Sequoia One, a professional employer organization (or PEO) that provides outsourced human resources and payroll services. The service is popular with U.S.-based startups, and says it works with more than 500 venture-backed companies.

Now, in a data breach notice filed with the California attorney general’s office, Sequoia said it became aware that an “unauthorized party may have accessed a cloud storage system that contained personal information” over a two-week period between September 22 and October 6. This breached cloud system stored an array of sensitive personal data, including names, home addresses, dates of birth, gender, marital status, and employment status. It also included Social Security numbers, their salary wage related to benefits, government identity cards, and COVID-19 test results and vaccine cards.

Sequoia added that the review also found no evidence of malware, a data extortion attempt, or any evidence of ongoing unauthorized access to company systems. Because the hacker’s access was “read-only,” the company said no client data had been changed.

Sequoia said it hired Dell Secureworks to conduct a forensic investigation, which found “no evidence that the unauthorized party misused or distributed data.” It’s not clear if Sequoia has the technical means, such as logs, to determine what information was accessed or what data was siphoned, if any.

When asked by TechCrunch, Sequoia declined to say how the customer data became exposed and would not say how many individuals had their personal data compromised.

Read more on security:

Offshore firm linked to Baroness Mone bought £7.5M private jet after allegedly making tens of millions from PPE contract

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Offshore firm linked to Baroness Mone bought £7.5M private jet after allegedly making tens of millions from PPE contract

An offshore company linked to Michelle Mone and her husband bought a £7.5million private jet months after they allegedly made tens of millions from a public PPE contract, it was claimed last night.

The Tory peer and lingerie tycoon, nicknamed ‘Baroness Bra’, has vowed to clear her name after a newspaper reported that leaked documents showed she and her children received £29million after referring a company called PPE Medpro for contracts for masks and gowns.

The firm was awarded £203million to supply equipment after she recommended it to ministers in the early days of the pandemic.

Since spring 2020, Baroness Mone and her husband, Doug Barrowman, have also splashed out on an £80,000 racehorse, which she bought for him as a wedding gift, and £3million of property for her children, The Guardian newspaper reported.

The couple held a lavish wedding at their multi-million-pound Isle of Man estate, an event which was splashed across the pages of Hello! celebrity magazine.

Lady Mone also posted on Instagram a picture of herself and Mr Barrowman on the Lady M yacht, believed to have been bought in May 2021 for around £6million.

There is nothing to link the alleged windfall from PPE Medpro with their luxurious lifestyle. But the timing of their spending will increase scrutiny on Baroness Mone and her husband.

The Lords standards watchdog is investigating the peer over her alleged links with PPE Medpro, although this has been paused pending a ‘criminal investigation’ into the firm.

Baroness Mone has consistently denied any ‘role or function’ in the company, and her lawyers have previously said she was ‘not connected to PPE Medpro in any capacity’.

This week the Daily Mail has revealed she had ‘aggressively’ lobbied Matt Hancock, then health secretary, to try to promote a second company that he claimed she had a ‘commercial interest’ in.

It was alleged the firm was LFI Diagnostics – a ‘secret entity’ of the family office of her husband. A source close to Baroness Mone denied the claim.

This week Rishi Sunak told the Commons it was ‘absolutely right’ that the Tory peer was taking a leave of absence from the Lords.

Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, he said: ‘Like everyone else I was absolutely shocked to read about the allegations.

‘It’s absolutely right that she is no longer attending the House of Lords and therefore no longer has the Conservative whip.’

Ministers have committed to release documents to MPs surrounding the award of £203million of contracts to PPE Medpro.

Morgan Stanley slashes its U.S. housing market outlook—where it sees the home price correction going in 2023

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Morgan Stanley slashes its U.S. housing market outlook—where it sees the home price correction going in 2023

On a national basis, home prices fell 1.3% between June and August. That marked the first decline measured by the lagged Case-Shiller National Home Price Index since 2012.

It’s more than just a small dip, it’s a trajectory shift. At least that’s according to the latest forecast produced by the economics team at Morgan Stanley.

This year, Morgan Stanley expects U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index, to finish with a year-over-year increase of 4%. But when considering that the Case-Shiller Index was up 8.9% through the first six months of 2022, that means Morgan Stanley expects U.S. home prices to fall by around 5%—including the 1.3% dip between June and August—in the second half of 2022.

The home price correction won’t stop there. Morgan Stanley expects U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index, to fall another 4% in 2023. In total, the Wall Street bank expects home prices to fall around 10% between June 2022 and the bottom in 2024. (Previously, Morgan Stanley had been predicting a 7% peak-to-trough decline in U.S. home prices).

The last housing correction, which saw U.S. home prices fall 27% between 2006 and 2012, was anchored by high unemployment, “pressurized” affordability, shady mortgage products, and a supply glut. This time around, we just have what Fortune calls “pressurized” affordability: Frothy home prices coupled with spiked mortgage rates.

“The median price of existing home sales is up 38% since March 2020. Mortgage rates are up over 300 bps [3 percentage points] in the past eight months, the first time we have seen anything like that since 1980/81. The combination of the two has caused affordability to deteriorate faster than at any point in our time series,” write Morgan Stanley researchers.

Heading forward, three levers can help to “depressurize” affordability, according to the bank. First, if inflation decelerates and financial conditions loosen, that would in theory push mortgage rates lower and thus improve affordability. Second, rising incomes (which are up 4.4% year-over-year) could improve affordability. Third, home prices continuing to fall would help to “depressurize” affordability. As long as affordability remains “pressurized,” Morgan Stanley expects that third lever to get pulled.

“Up until this point, we have focused on housing forecasts up until the end of 2023, but we do not believe December 2023 will be the bottom for home prices. It is not a groundbreaking statement to say that the trajectory of home prices into 2024 and beyond is filled with more than a little uncertainty,” the researchers write.

Let’s take a deeper look at Morgan Stanley’s latest housing outlook.

Tight inventory won’t stop home prices from falling—but it could create a floor

The ongoing affordability shock—of frothy home prices coupled with spiked mortgage rates—has seen demand crater. On a year-over-year basis, mortgage purchase applications are down 40.7%. However, it hasn’t translated into surging supply levels: Inventory levels in October were 37.6% below October 2019 levels.

“Supply conditions historically argue [for] climbing home prices from here. If we are below 6 months of total supply, annual home price growth has never turned negative within the next six months going back to the beginning of this Case-Shiller Index in the late 1980s. We currently sit at just 3.9 months of supply,” write Morgan Stanley researchers.

But this time could be different: The ongoing affordability strain could see home prices fall even though inventory remains tight.

“The fact that we expect home prices to start falling on an annual basis in March 2023 despite tight inventory reflects how unprecedented this affordability situation is in the U.S. housing market,” writes Morgan Stanley. “However, although supply doesn’t keep home price growth floored at zero, we do believe it prevents home price declines from becoming too large.”

Bull case: Home prices stop falling in 2023

Peak-to-trough, Morgan Stanley expects U.S. home prices to fall 10% through 2024. However, there’s a “bull” case where the firm believes U.S. home prices don’t fall in 2023 and the peak-to-trough decline comes in around 5%.

There’s two key pillars to Morgan Stanley’s “bull” case: Tighter than expected inventory levels and lower than expected mortgage rates.

“In a bull case, the lock-in effect keeps inventories at the lows we have experienced in the past year. At the same time, lower mortgage rates incentivize more purchase demand than we are currently expecting as households view any rally as a potentially temporary reprieve and move to take advantage before the next move higher,” writes Morgan Stanley researchers.

In 2023, Morgan Stanley expects 30-year fixed mortgage rates to average 6.2%. However, if the Fed successfully tames inflation sooner than expected, loosened financial conditions could see mortgage rates fall below 6%. Meanwhile, if the so-called lock-in effect (meaning homeowners who don’t want to sell and give up their 2% or 3% mortgage rate) continues into 2023, it could make inventory levels tighter than Morgan Stanley currently expects.

Bear case: Home prices crash 20%

If a “deep” recession manifests, Morgan Stanley predicts U.S. home prices could crash 20% from peak-to-trough—including up to an 8% home price decline in 2023 alone.

“A common scenario that we are presented with when discussing the bear case for home prices is a longer and deeper recession leading to a material increase in unemployment,” writes Morgan Stanley researchers. “What we think would be a more likely cause of a home price bear case would be an intersection of weaker-than-expected demand with a larger increase in inventories than currently forecast.”

But even if this “bear” scenario were to manifest, Morgan Stanley doesn’t think it’d be a full-blown repeat of the 2008 crash.

“While this [our bear case] would understandably be negative for the housing market, we continue to believe that the health of credit standards should keep a ceiling on how high true distressed transactions can climb. Additionally, a mortgage servicing industry that is far more practiced in offering borrowers foreclosure alternatives (e.g., modifications) should keep more borrowers in their homes as opposed to forcing a liquidation event,” writes Morgan Stanley researchers.

Want to stay updated on the housing correction? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

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Gartner Data & Analytics Sydney 2022 – Innovation Evangelism

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Gartner Data & Analytics Sydney 2022 – Innovation Evangelism

Last week I was in beautiful Sydney, Australia for the Gartner Data and Analytics Conference. Here’s a quick video summary:

One of the big things that struck me was the changing role of data. For the last 30 years, whenever you want to do analytics, the first step is to rip it out of the operational applications and try and move it to a different environment—so data warehousing, data lakes, data lakehouses and now data clouds.

But the problem with that is that it’s like ripping a tree out of the forest and trying to get it to grow in a different environment. You lose the roots, all of the rich, business, context and metadata and security and hierarchies, and then you have to try and recreate it in the new environment.

It’s possible, but it takes huge amounts of time and effort.

Now, thanks to the cloud, there’s a better way: we can bring the technology to the data rather than the other way around, and we can put business process back at the center of analytics.

Data is useless. You actually have to change something in the way you do business.

So the right approach for the future, I believe, is to leave data as much as possible where it already is in your business applications, and then use technology such as the SAP Business Technology Platform to connect that data, to provide it as a series of services that the business users can use to create their own applications.

 

Balancing Agility And Standardization – Innovation Evangelism

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Balancing Agility And Standardization – Innovation Evangelism

Simon Jarke is the Head of Corporate Digital Business Innovation at Freudenberg, a family-owned global technology group headquartered in Germany and founded in 1849.

He recently explained how the organization has taken advantage of the latest technology advances to give business people more agility and control over their processes, without sacrificing standardization and efficiency:

“I think the key to success, especially in times of digital transformation, lies in the philosophy and practices of lean. One core principle of lean is Jidoka, which is about the relationship of man and machine. It means something like machines alone are dumb. Only when humans build in the possibilities of being able to contribute themselves, they can together create value. The machine or process must always guarantee the human the ability to intervene immediately when the assumed conditions no longer exist.

“This idea, sometimes called automation with a human touch must be our vision when it comes to digital machine and processes. The consequences of these ideas are significant: it’s about empowering everyone involved in a digitized business process to rapidly or immediately address, identify and correct mistakes that are core in the process.

“Today, things often look different. Just ask a knowledge worker or a specialist in purchasing, accounting, or sales, to what extent they see themselves today in a position to solve a problem in a process. They often know about inefficiencies, about gaps in the process, but are at the mercy of the machine. They usually do not own the technical limitation of their process, so they cannot intervene immediately when the assumed conditions no longer exist.

“According to Jidoka, what the employee needs is not just a UI to interact with the digitized business process, but rather the way to customize the process quickly and easily.

“But standardized end-to-end processes were the gold standard of the last decade. Do we want to give that up and allow each individual to make adjustments to processes or establish their own? Of course, in the end, we want a consistent and integrated data architecture across the whole enterprise. The good news is you can balance the two: the agility and standardization. And SAP Build Process Automation [part of the SAP Business Technology Platform] is a key component for us to do that.

“How does that look like in practice? Let me give you an example. My colleague, David, is responsible for ordering iPhones for their colleagues, and he has been very unhappy with the process so far.

“Let me give you some background: conceptually, when an employee gets an iPhone, two things happen. First an investment budget is requested and approved to provide the money for the iPhone, and second, then, a procurement process is initiated and run through to purchase the device with this budget.

“Until now the lead time of the process was often several weeks due to many manual steps and hands-offs. This, of course, was a situation that David was not proud of. But then digital process automation came to the rescue. Since all data APIs existed for all the necessary steps, we were able to create so-called actions in SAP Build Process Automation for them.

“This was a step that was done by a pro-code developer, including all the plumbing between S/4HANA, SAP BTP, side-by-side CAP applications and so on, but this action was now available within process automation as an easy-to-use component that David could use to develop a new iPhone ordering process on his own.

“So he built a simple form that only asked three things: who are you, what is your cost center and what iPhone model do you want? And once this form submitted, the proper APIs are called by the actions to create the necessary objects in S/4HANA and run all the approvals necessary there. In S/4, for example, a quite usual purchase requisition is created, no different than the one that you would create using to standard UI. But via a simple iPhone ordering form, it was much easier and faster for the average user. So the orderers are happy, David is happy, the lead time of the process has been massively reduced.

“This example shows what I meant by balancing agility and standardization. Actions in SAP Process Automation are not only a great way to combine the work of pro-code and no-code developers, they are also the extension point, in a sense of Jidoka, to customize the process quickly and easy.

“And this, by building on existing standardization, as in our example, by automatically creating standard Objects in SAP back-end solutions like S/4HANA. The ease at which scenarios like these can be implemented is what made us choose SAP Process Automation. We think that SAP has a unique selling point in this respect, compared to other typical competitors, where the same would be more difficult to achieve.

“Of course, SAP still has a way to go, but we have great confidence and SAP that we share the same vision of more empowerment, more agility, more modularity and more lean thinking in digital process automation.”

 

How Long Does Innovation Take? • Derek Cheshire

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How Long Does Innovation Take? • Derek Cheshire

Recently I attempted to answer the question ‘how much?’ and now ‘how long?’. These are probably the two most frequent questions that I am asked, regarding innovation. If you have not already seen my article about the cost of innovation you may find it useful.

The thing is, the answer is the one that you don’t want to hear. ‘It depends’ or ‘forever’ are the two most likely answers I can give you. Why?

Most businesses try to get to grips with Innovation as a result of wanting to develop new products or services, usually quickly. You might be able to do with with your current R&D setup but let us imagine that you cannot, you want something different, something that will leave the competition for dead.

You are going to need to conjure up a selection of employees, the right mix is crucial here. They will need resources such as time and space and permission from someone very senior to be playful (sorry prototype). They will of course need some specific targets or else they really will just be playing.

So if you meet these still woolly requirements, how long? To get some successful reinvention going (others might call this incremental innovation) you could get something ready in around 6 to 8 months. If you want to be a little more radical then maybe 2 years.

This is just a wetted finger in the air. With my innovation assessment hat on I have seen truly disruptive innovation take 7 or 8 years to get to market.

And what about the ‘forever’ answer?

Regular readers will know that I believe that Innovation is something we should be doing constantly so it would last forever. Think of it as an ice cream machine that is always turned on and loaded with ingredients rather than being turned on each summer.

There is another way too. If you get stuck in the ‘cycle of non innovation’ you could be there forever and produce absolutely nothing. Read more here.

Do not be put off though, the gains can be immense.

Let’s make Innovation work for you …

LOBO Systems Is Now Approved For Use At 11  AB Agri Locations.

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LOBO Systems Is Now Approved For Use At 11  AB Agri Locations.

LOBO Systems Is Now Approved For Use At 11  AB Agri Locations.

Designed and manufactured by LOBO Systems,  the British firm with the world’s most sophisticated work platform system, has won orders from  AB Agri, part of the £13B giant Associated British Foods PLC.

The facilities convert grain into pellets by grinding it down and compacting it. This is done through various machines, conveyors and elevators, all requiring maintenance.

The engineering & maintenance teams require a single piece of equipment that would allow them to access all the machinery inside their building, including motors, bearings and hatches that need safe working access.

The LOBO platform system and its integrated Lifting Slider Beam configurations were perfect.

Each site has a tailor-made “pool” of LOBO components that can build a tower to suit any issue brought to LOBO’s attention. The LOBO Systems solution will save AB Agri money long-term by reducing or eliminating the need for ongoing scaffolding costs.

Stuart Smith, the UK Reliability & Asset Care Manager for AB Agri comments …

Why did you purchase a LOBO System?

“I have used it before at several other businesses. Always found it easy to use and simple but very effective. The people I have dealt with at LOBO have always been professional, friendly and extremely helpful.”

What features of the system are especially appealing?

“Easy to assemble, and when you get used to it, you can erect it quickly. I feel safer on the top deck of LOBO equipment than I do with any other option. It all just locks into place with no tools and less risk.”

 What was the thinking behind purchasing for all your locations?

We have several areas that are difficult to access across the mills, and LOBO was the obvious solution. In addition, we can share knowledge and even equipment easily with LOBO rather than eleven different types of access equipment.”

Was the training of value and why?

“The training was superb, really well balanced between practical and theory. I felt confident that when the course was finished, I could train in the safe use of the LOBO system. As a result, all the engineering teams and I now know to train a vast amount of people in our business safely and effectively. Everything from the purchasing experience to the delivery and training has been superb. Even with the time, it took us to get the money allocated. LOBO was helpful and supportive in this process and, ultimately, highly patient with us.” 

The 12-month onboarding process comprised HSE  compliance verification and approval by the UK  engineering group, which has now been completed.

As LOBO is modular with no tools assembly, Amazon engineers use LOBO to access awkward areas above and around their conveyor units, which are in constant use, so a high priority. Outsourced contractor scaffolding costs can be substantially reduced, as maintenance teams can assemble the system anywhere required.

Robert Bokros, LOBO Systems inventor & CEO, explained: “The LOBO Advanced Platform System has revolutionized the way industry works safely at height. Evidence from satisfied users illustrates incredible cuts in scaffolding costs, reduced downtime whilst waiting for it to arrive, erected and less reliance on outside scaffolding contractors. In most cases, the payback time for LOBO is measured in months compared to conventional scaffolding. On our website, we identify these savings from actual case histories.”

Funding roundup Nov 13 – 18: Advanced Navigation, ULUU and more

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Funding roundup Nov 13 – 18: Advanced Navigation, ULUU and more

This weekly feature from Dynamic Business runs down the week’s top funding rounds from Australia, India and the US. Check out last week’s biggest funding rounds here.

Advanced Navigation raises $108 mil in Series B led by KKR

Advanced Navigation, a developer of artificial intelligence robotics and navigation technologies, has raised AUD 108 million (US 68 million) in a Series B funding round sponsored by global investment company KKR. 

The fundraising round includes new investors, including deep learning venture firm AI Capital as well as current investors like Main Sequence, the Hon. Malcolm Turnbull AC, In-Q-Tel, and Our Innovation Fund bringing Advanced Navigation’s total sum raised to more than AUD 134 million (US 85 million).

Engineers Xavier Orr and Chris Shaw created Advanced Navigation in Sydney, Australia, in 2012 to commercialise university research on AI-based inertial navigation.

Contentstack raises $80 Million Series C co-Led by Georgian and Insight Partners

Contentstack, the Content Experience Platform (CXP) category leader and composable architecture pioneer announced $80 million in Series C funding.

Georgian and Insight Partners co-led the round with participation from Illuminate Ventures. All three companies continue to grow their investment with Contentstack, contributing to a $169 million total raised thus far.

Ofload raises AU$60 mil

Ofload raised AU$60 million in Series B funding, which includes both debt and equity, to accelerate its push for sustainable supply chains. Jungle Ventures, Singapore’s largest independent venture capital firm, led the round, which included increased funding from previous investors King River Capital, Bay Grove, Maersk Growth, and Foundamental.

Following its successful acquisition of Melbourne freight expert CIA Logistics in September, Mars Expansion Capital, part of the Liquidity Group, provided the debt finance component, which helps accelerate Ofload’s inorganic growth efforts.

ULUU secures $8m led by Main Sequence

ULUU, an Australian company developing a revolutionary natural plastic replacement, has successfully raised AUD$8 million (USD$5 million) from a group of strategic investors that includes supermodel, entrepreneur, and philanthropist Karlie Kloss and Tame Impala frontman Kevin Parker.

The seed round was led by their existing deep tech investor Main Sequence, founded by CSIRO, with participation from Alberts Impact Ventures, Mistletoe and Possible Ventures.

Buildkite raises A$32 million

Buildkite, a market-leading software development startup, has announced the completion of a $21 million USD series B fundraising round to support the firm’s aim of removing roadblocks for every software developer on the planet.

Buildkite will use 100 per cent of the funds to launch new developer-focused products and expand the company’s existing operations, marketing, and sales teams, led by Australian investors OneVentures and AirTree, with participation from US-based General Catalyst and Dom Pym, founder of digital bank Up.

Four mums raising kids with disabilities crack $1m in funding

Kindship has raised over $1 million for its start-up that would untangle the NDIS complexities. They already have 2,500 families using their app each month, and the $1 million raised through their Birchal equity crowdfunding campaign will be utilised to create and scale the “Kindship Wallet,” an NDIS plan management tool.

World

Ramp Network Raises $70M in Series B Funding

Ramp Network, a London-based payment infrastructure startup for crypto, raised $70M in Series B funding. The round brings the total raised by Ramp to $122.7m over the past 12 months alone. Mubadala Capital’s Frederic Lardieg joins the board as a director.

Symend Raises Over $40M in Growth Funding

Calgary, Canada-based Behavioral Engagement TechnologyTM solutions provider, raised over $40M in Growth funding. The company intends to use the funds to accelerate its growth and global market expansion further. Founded in 2016, Symend has global operations across Canada, the United States and Latin America.

Weka Raises $135M in Series D Funding

Weka, a data platform provider for next-generation workloads, raised $135M in Series D funding. The company intends to use the funds to continue to invest in developing the WEKA Data platform. The funds will allow WEKA to reach profitability, accelerate global expansion, and scale its cloud, customer success, sales, marketing, operations, operations and human resources teams.

JPMorgan Chase and 5 other U.S. megabanks behind a third of the global funding expanding coal, oil and gas

The six major U.S. banks are behind more than one-third of the financing for expanding fossil-fuel extraction. Together, the top 60 banks by assets provided $1.3 trillion to the top 100 companies expanding fossil fuels between 2016-2021. The banks have joined global efforts to cut carbon emissions by 2030.

Keep up to date with our stories on LinkedInTwitterFacebook and Instagram.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase — The Art of Relentless Focus, Preparing for Full-Contact Entrepreneurship, Critical Forks in the Path, Handling Haters, The

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Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase — The Art of Relentless Focus, Preparing for Full-Contact Entrepreneurship, Critical Forks in the Path, Handling Haters, The
Illustration via 99desings

“The greatest risk is not taking one.”

— Brian Armstrong

Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) is the co-founder and chief executive officer of Coinbase. Founded in 2012, Coinbase is building the crypto economy—a more fair, accessible, efficient, and transparent financial system enabled by crypto. Coinbase serves over 103 million verified users, 14,500 institutions, and 245,000 ecosystem partners in over 100 countries. In April 2021, Coinbase listed publicly on NASDAQ as COIN. 

Before founding Coinbase, Brian served as a software engineer at Airbnb, where he focused on fraud prevention. Before Airbnb, Brian founded and was CEO of UniversityTutor.com, an online tutoring directory and a subsidiary of Johnson Educational Technologies LLC. Brian also previously served as a consultant for the enterprise risk management division at Deloitte & Touche LLP. Brian has a BA in computer science and economics and an MS in computer science from Rice University.

Over the last three years, Coinbase has worked with ten-time Emmy®-winning filmmaker Greg Kohs on a documentary about cryptocurrency and Coinbase. COIN is now available on AmazoniTunesYouTubeVimeo on Demand, and other platforms.

Please enjoy!

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Amazon Musicor on your favorite podcast platform. You can watch the interview on YouTube here.

Brought to you by ShipStation shipping softwareAthletic Greens all-in-one nutritional supplement, and Helix Sleep premium mattresses.

The transcript of this episode can be found here. Transcripts of all episodes can be found here.

#627: Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase — The Art of Relentless Focus, Preparing for Full-Contact Entrepreneurship, Critical Forks in the Path, Handling Haters, The Wisdom of Paul Graham, Epigenetic Reprogramming, and Much More


This episode is brought to you by Helix SleepHelix was selected as the #1 overall mattress of 2020 by GQ magazine, Wired, Apartment Therapy, and many others. With Helix, there’s a specific mattress to meet each and every body’s unique comfort needs. Just take their quiz—only two minutes to complete—that matches your body type and sleep preferences to the perfect mattress for you. They have a 10-year warranty, and you get to try it out for a hundred nights, risk-free. They’ll even pick it up from you if you don’t love it. And now, Helix is offering up to 200 dollars off all mattress orders plus two free pillows at HelixSleep.com/Tim.


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Tim Ferriss Show listeners get to try ShipStation free for 60 days by using promo code TIM. There’s no risk, and you can start your free trial without even entering your credit card info. Just visit ShipStation.com, click on the microphone at the TOP of the homepage, and type in “TIM”!


This episode is brought to you by Athletic Greens. I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually AG1 by Athletic Greens, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but AG further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system. 

Right now, Athletic Greens is offering you their Vitamin D Liquid Formula free with your first subscription purchase—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones. Visit AthleticGreens.com/Tim to claim this special offer today and receive the free Vitamin D Liquid Formula (and five free travel packs) with your first subscription purchase! That’s up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive all-in-one daily greens product.


Want to learn more about Web3 and crypto? Listen to my podcast episode with Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant, in which we discuss what the smartest people do on the weekend, solving proof-of-work problems, the real promise of Web3, why NFTs are more than the sum of their JPGs, how skeuomorphic design can be applied to Web3, why it’s still the early days of decentralization, the pros and cons of crypto regulation, how DAOs work and what they can offer to society at large, and much more.

#542: Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant — The Wonders of Web3, How to Pick the Right Hill to Climb, Finding the Right Amount of Crypto Regulation, Friends with Benefits, and the Untapped Potential of NFTs

What was your favorite quote or lesson from this episode? Please let me know in the comments.

SCROLL BELOW FOR LINKS AND SHOW NOTES…

SELECTED LINKS FROM THE EPISODE

  • Connect with Brian Armstrong:

Twitter

Watch COIN: Amazon | iTunes | Vimeo on Demand

SHOW NOTES

  • [05:46] How Brian’s first book idea became a blog.
  • [07:21] Brian’s time in Buenos Aires.
  • [13:39] Present-day economic warning signs.
  • [16:13] Coinbase beginnings: from genesis to the Buy Bitcoin button.
  • [20:35] Influential human beings, books, and documentaries.
  • [23:15] Core principles learned from early startup days.
  • [26:39] Favorite Paul Graham essays.
  • [28:12] Controversy: Coinbase becomes an apolitical, mission-focused company.
  • [37:11] Cultivating resilience to resistance as a leader.
  • [44:57] Competition.
  • [46:51] What crypto skeptics and crypto bulls each get wrong often.
  • [49:30] Main use cases for crypto.
  • [50:18] Making the case that crypto is still in early days.
  • [54:55] Novel crypto ideas Brian thinks will prove worthwhile.
  • [59:57] Lessons learned from the launch of Coinbase’s NFT marketplace.
  • [1:03:44] How Coinbase is addressing NFT security.
  • [1:05:34] “Not your keys, not your crypto.”
  • [1:10:56] Self-improvement.
  • [1:14:14] Learning biology basics from a tutor as an adult.
  • [1:20:03] The goals of NewLimit.
  • [1:27:32] What is ResearchHub?
  • [1:31:41] How open bounties work.
  • [1:33:25] What excites Brian most about science today?
  • [1:36:52] Brian’s billboard.
  • [1:38:24] Parting thoughts.

MORE BRIAN ARMSTRONG QUOTES FROM THE INTERVIEW

“Talk to the customer, iterate, talk to the customer, iterate.”
— Brian Armstrong

“We weren’t even trying to make a company. We were just kind of trying to learn this stuff in the evenings in our free time.”
— Brian Armstrong

“If I have to come in every day and be put in front of the hot mic and have to answer all these crazy things that I don’t have an answer to, that’s not what I signed up for. I want to build cool stuff with technology that changes the world. That’s what I’m good at.”
— Brian Armstrong

“Honestly, if you don’t have a competitor—people are naturally tribalistic—you’ll sometimes see tribes start to form inside the company and people start fighting each other, so it’s actually better to have something outside the company that you’re struggling against.”
— Brian Armstrong

“It’s never as good as it seems, never as bad as it seems, in crypto.”
— Brian Armstrong

“They teach you in PR training to pivot the question to the one you wish was asked.”
— Brian Armstrong

“If I just think about all the biggest challenges that we have in the world today, I think science and technology are pretty good hammers to swing at those nails.”
— Brian Armstrong

“The most valuable companies in the world are when we cross-pollinate a true scientific innovation with someone who can go commercialize it.”
— Brian Armstrong

“The greatest risk is not taking one.”
— Brian Armstrong

PEOPLE MENTIONED

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